Proof of concept study on early forecasting of antimicrobial resistance in hospitalized patients using machine learning and simple bacterial ecology data

Antibiotic resistance in bacterial pathogens is a major threat to global health, exacerbated by the misuse of antibiotics. In hospital practice, results of bacterial cultures and antibiograms can take several days. Meanwhile, prescribing an empirical antimicrobial treatment is challenging, as clinicians must balance the antibiotic spectrum against the expected probability of susceptibility. We present here a proof of concept study of a machine learning-based system that predicts the probability of antimicrobial susceptibility and explains the contribution of the different cofactors in hospitalized patients, at four different stages prior to the antibiogram (sampling, direct examination, positive culture, and species identification), using only historical bacterial ecology data that can be easily collected from any laboratory information system (LIS) without GDPR restrictions once the data have been anonymised. A comparative analysis of different state-of-the-art machine learning and probabilistic methods was performed using 44,026 instances over 7 years from the Hôpital Européen Marseille, France. Our results show that multilayer dense neural networks and Bayesian models are suitable for early prediction of antibiotic susceptibility, with AUROCs reaching 0.88 at the positive culture stage and 0.92 at the species identification stage, and even 0.82 and 0.92, respectively, for the least frequent situations. Perspectives and potential clinical applications of the system are discussed.