Have Climate Factor Changes Jeopardized the Value of Qinghai Grassland Ecosystem Services within the Grass–Animal Balance?

Internal and external environmental changes have led to changes in the service value of plateau ecosystems. Plateau ecosystems are facing a risk of falling into “recession”. Meanwhile, climate change has become an important factor affecting the service value of plateau grassland ecosystems. In this paper, from the perspective of how changes in climate factors inhibit the value of ecosystem services of plateau grasslands, we adopt the equivalent factor method to measure the value of grassland ecosystem services in eight municipal levels in Qinghai Province from 2000 to 2021. We also construct a fixed utility model to test how changes in climate factors affect the value of ecosystem services and use the grass–animal balance as a mediating effect model for the test. The results of the study showed that (1) the increase in temperature and precipitation among the changes in climate factors significantly suppresses the ecosystem service value of grassland in the plateau. (2) The mediation test shows that the grass–livestock balance helped suppress the effects of climate factor changes on the ecological service value of plateau grassland. (3) The heterogeneity test shows that the area containing the Three-River-Source National Park is more resistant to climate factor changes. Climate factor changes have a greater impact on the ecosystem service value of plateau grassland in high altitude areas and have a significant positive effect on sustained low grassland carrying pressure index status. Therefore, in the protection of plateau grassland ecosystems, we should pay attention to the inputs in the ecosystems as well as appropriate grazing. At the same time, this study can provide a reference value for the decision-making with respect to ecological natural resources protection or restoration in plateau grassland under the effects of climate factors.