Earthquake Sequence Simulation and Hazard Analysis in the Tianshan Orogenic Belt and Adjacent Areas

ABSTRACT The Tianshan orogenic belt is located in central Eurasia. Its tectonic deformation and seismicity are primarily influenced by the far-field effect of the India–Eurasia collision. It is one of the regions with the most intensive seismicity in China. Understanding the mechanisms of earthquake nucleation in this region is a hot topic in the seismicity community. The numerical simulation of earthquake sequences is an efficient measure for comprehensively exploring earthquake occurrence characteristics, tectonic loading, and subsequence patterns. It is also an important method for predicting and mitigating earthquake disasters. This study utilized a finite-element model to investigate the evolution of regional historical earthquakes via the split-node method. Coulomb failure stress analyses from interactions of simulated historical earthquakes since 1900 indicate that the Taxkorgan fault may be prone to the next significant earthquake event.