Long-term changes of mangrove distribution and its response to anthropogenic impacts in the Vietnamese Southern Coastal Region

Human activities related to land use and land cover (LULC) conversion have been the primary factor driving changes to mangrove distribution over recent decades. In order to quantify the anthropogenic influences associated with LULC changes on mangroves in the Vietnamese Southern Coast (VSC), we investigated the variations and trends in mangrove distribution between 1988 and 2023. We used a time-series of Landsat spectral indices from Google Earth Engine and applied hot spot analysis and machine learning algorithms to analyse mangrove variations and LULC classification, respectively. Our findings revealed that over the past 36 years, approximately half of the mangrove area has been lost due to LULC conversions. The most significant losses in mangrove cover occurred during the 1998-2011 period, with a decline of 46.79% in total area (an average of 3.6% per annum). The rate of mangrove deforestation more than halved to 17.49% (1.5% per annum) in the period between from 2011 to 2023. We attribute the reduction in mangrove loss to conservation efforts and natural regeneration processes. The emerging hot spot analysis indicated that the most significant restoration of new mangrove areas occurred between 1988 and 1998, totalling 1795 ha (1.4%), while the highest rate of mangrove deforestation was observed between 1998 and 2011, amounting to 2249 ha (2.0%). The primary causes of these variations in mangrove distribution were the conversion of mangrove areas to shrimp farming (38.91%), followed by other agricultural land use (5.82%) and the expansion of impervious surfaces (3.34%). In contrast, a result of enhanced conservation efforts and natural regeneration was associated with a 17.91% of mangrove area gain in the 2011-2023 period. Despite the regeneration potential of mangroves, our study highlighted the ongoing need to manage and protect mangrove forests to facilitate their expansion in the VSC. The analytical approach adopted in this study is applicable to other coastal areas when assessing changes in mangroves and land use practices.