Effects of Climate Change on the Distribution of Scomber japonicus and Konosirus punctatus in China’s Coastal and Adjacent Waters

Climate change has increasingly impacted the marine environment, with various marine environmental factors interacting to influence fish distribution. Assessing the impact of climate change on the future distribution of fish depends on understanding how biological responses interact with environmental conditions. Enhancing our understanding of the potential impacts of climate change is crucial for the sustainable development of marine fisheries. In this study, we analyzed the habitat suitability of Scomber japonicus and Konosirus punctatus in the coastal waters of China (17°–41° N, 107°–130° E) using marine environmental data, including, as follows: sea surface temperature (SST); sea surface salinity (SSS); pH; and biological occurrence data from 2000 to 2010. A maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model was employed to predict the future distribution of these two species based on the shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP) scenarios for 2040–2050 and 2090–2100. The results indicate that climate change will significantly affect the future habitat distribution of S. japonicus and K. punctatus, leading to a decrease in suitable habitat areas offshore China and a gradual shift northeastward in the center of these habitats. These findings are essential for understanding the impacts of climate change on the distribution of S. japonicus and K. punctatus, with significant implications for fisheries resource assessment and management.