Influence of Climate Change on Carbon Sequestration in Pine Forests of Central Spain

Climate change influences carbon sequestration by forests, either positively or negatively. In the Mediterranean region, this effect is predominantly negative, although it seems to be compensated by the elevation. This study aims to analyse the impact of climate change on carbon sequestration in five pine species—Pinus halepensis, P. nigra, P. pinaster, P. pinea, and P. sylvestris—growing across an altitudinal gradient from 573 to 1743 m a.s.l. in central Spain. Data from 300 forest inventory plots in ten forests were used to first calculate carbon sequestration in 2024. To estimate future carbon sequestration, the expected values of precipitation and temperature for 2100 were determined, based on regionalised climate scenarios for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Values from 13 meteorological stations located around the forests, at different elevations, were analysed, conducting a statistical analysis to determine whether variations were significant. A statistically significant variation was detected for temperature and precipitation changes only under the RCP8.5 scenario. Using temperature and precipitation data for 2024 and 2100, net potential productivity in both years was established, considering its variation ratio equivalent as equivalent to that of growth and carbon sequestration. An inflection point was detected in 2100 at 1646 m a.s.l., with a decrease in productivity below and an increase above that elevation. Results reflect a decline in carbon sequestration in all the species, ranging from 6% in P. sylvestris to 28% in P. halepensis, conditioned by the elevation. Regionally, the average decrease would be 16.4%. In temperate and boreal regions, forest growth is expected to increase due to climate change, but the Mediterranean region will experience a significant decrease, except in mountain areas. To maintain current levels of carbon sequestration, it would be necessary to increase the existing carbon sinks through new plantations and the restoration of degraded forests.