Substitution effect of Asian economies on China’s industrial and supply chains: from the perspective of global production network

This paper views China Production Network (CPN) as an integral component of the Global Production Network (GPN) and constructs null model (GIVCBN-I model) and the counterfactual model (GIVCBN-II or GIVCBN-III model) to identify and measure the potential industrial relocation risk exposure of CPN based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output (MRIO) table. The main findings are as follows. Firstly, Altasia will induce more of China’s industrial and supply chains to break compared with ASEAN, which also means that strong industrial complementarity exists between Japan, South Korea, India, Bangladesh and the ASEAN member countries, enabling Altasia to have a more significant substitution effect on China. Secondly, the counterfactual models’ network-level characteristic indicators are worse than those of the null model in economic terms, suggesting that removing trade barriers for intermediate goods within Altasia could lead to the decoupling of industrial sectors in the CPN, thereby accelerating the trend of China’s industrial and supply chains relocating offshore. Thirdly, according to the comparison results of node-level characteristic indicators, Altasia has weakened China’s influence scope, profitability, and robustness of risk within the global industrial and supply chains, but mainly concentrating on its resource-intensive and labor-intensive sectors rather than capital-intensive and technology-intensive sectors, which indicates that some China’s industrial sectors still maintain substantial competitive advantages in the GPN. In sum, this paper provides theoretical guidance for identifying and analyzing the trends of industrial relocation in the Asia-Pacific region and helps industrial policymakers deepen the understanding of regional economic integration and its impact.