SUPPLY-DEMAND STRUCTURE AND ESTIMATION OF DAY SERVICE FOR THE ELDERLY IN NORTH KANTO REGION (PART 2)：ESTIMATION OF DEMAND AND SUPPLY QUANTITY INCORPORATING MARKET EQUILIBRIUM CONDITIONS (2020～2045)

This paper aims to estimate the amount of demand for day service facilities and appropriate supply incorporating market equilibrium conditions. The capacity sufficiency rate is used as a judgment index of market equilibrium. An estimation method is proposed to calculate the new supply amount with the utilization and capacity sufficiency rates as the policy parameters based on estimated number of care-need person and service users. The number of care-need person and service users will peak in 2040 and then decline. Appropriate new supply will taper off after 2020 and the market capacity will contract after 2040’s.