Conceptualising climate change vulnerability across the agrarian transition: The example of Egypt

In this study, we explore the relationship between Egypt's agrarian transition and farmers’ perceptions of environmental risks and opportunities for climate change adaptation. Drawing from agrarian studies and rural development pathways in Egypt, we highlight structural challenges in addressing vulnerabilities of households in agrarian communities to environmental change. Our evidence comes from 350 landholders and agricultural labourers in rural Damietta, a governorate in the northeast of the Egyptian Nile Delta Region. We categorize households into three groups based on their reliance on agriculture for income, corresponding to different agrarian transition models. We find that vulnerabilities and capacities for climate change adaptation vary among these groups, with those heavily dependent on agriculture being the most vulnerable, despite having greater awareness of agricultural risks. They exhibit limited capacity to respond effectively – both in and ex situ, indicating a need for targeted support as environmental pressures increase due to climate change. • We integrate the agrarian transition framework with climate adaptation theory. • Agricultural-based households are more vulnerable to climate change. • Marginal agriculturally-dependant households could become “trapped” in place. • Sustainable pathways for adapting in situ should be prioritised.