Thermal regime of peatlands in Western Siberia near the southern border of the permafrost

Relevance. The permafrost degradation under the effect of global warming. It determines the necessity for a predictive assessment of permafrost stability to minimize disturbances to engineering installations in the permafrost zone. Aim. To assess the stability of frozen peatlands in the southern part of the zone of insular distribution of permafrost. Objects. Soils of flat-mound and high-mound palsa mires, which preserve permafrost on the southern border of the insular permafrost zone. Methods. Measurements of the temperature of peat and mineral soil in geocryological boreholes from 0 to 10 m deep using the SAM-N automatic monitoring surveillance network; determination of surface temperature from thermal channels of MODIS satellite images from 2000 to 2022; analysis of meteorological indices and determination of air temperature trends for predictive assessment of permafrost stability; calculation of indicator values of permafrost state, such as freezing degree-days and thawing degree-days, frost index, freezing and thawing N-factors. Results. Numerous features of unstable permafrost have been observed. In particular, the mean annual temperature of the surface layer was positive in all studied boreholes (+0.8...+1.3°C), and the temperature at the depth of zero amplitudes (10 m) is close to the melting point (with the predominance of temperatures in the range of –0.2...–0.3°C). Besides, a layer of soil that does not freeze throughout the year (non-merging permafrost) was identified. The thawing degree-days and frost number values correspond to areas with unfrozen soils. Positive trends in air temperature, Earth's surface temperature, and snow depth were observed. For 2000–2022, surface air temperature increased by 0.76°C/10 years on average. The land surface temperature increased in summer by an average of 0.42°C/10 years. If the positive trend in surface air temperatures continues, frozen peatlands in the southern part of the permafrost zone will completely melt in 50–70 years.