Arctic and Barents Sea ice extent variability and trends in 1979–2022

The aim of the paper is to assess interannual and decadal variability of the Barents Sea and Arctic ice extent in various seasons for the period from 1979 to 2022. The material for the study was satellite data on the Barents Sea and Arctic ice extent, climate indices, oceanographic data obtained during surveys in the Barents Sea by PINRO and other available information on hydrometeorological conditions of the sea in 1979–2022. Methods of descriptive statistics as well as comparative, correlation, regression, harmonic and cluster analyses were applied. Results : The year-to-year changes in the Barents Sea and Arctic ice extent in various seasons are described for 1979–2022. The modern climate changes, manifested in substantial warming of air and water masses in the Arctic, resulted in a considerable ice extent reduction in the studied areas in recent decades. Well-marked negative trends took place in all months and seasons. The annual mean ice extent was decreasing at a rate of 532 thousand km 2 per decade in the Arctic, and at a rate of 105 thousand km 2 per decade in the Barents Sea. Over the past 40 years, the ice extent in the Arctic has decreased by 14%, and in the Barents Sea — by half (by 51%), while the ice-free period duration has increased in the Barents Sea from one to three months. Hydrometeorological parameters were identified that are most closely related to the ice extent in the Arctic (|r| ≥ 0.40) and Barents Sea (|r| ≥ 0.60). Reliable regression models were developed that explain 45.2 and 88.0% of its variability, respectively. The contribution of individual factors to the ice extent variability explained by regression equations was quantitatively assessed, and the leading role of air temperature was noted. Practical significance : The obtained results are useful for a better understanding of the climate processes occurring in the Arctic and Barents Sea in recent decades and can be used to assess the impact of climate changes on the main objects of Russian fishery in these areas.