Affirming the explanandum

Abstract Affirming the consequent is an inferential pattern in which one infers the antecedent of a given conditional from its consequent. Abductive inference is structurally similar: given some evidence, one infers a hypothesis that explains the evidence. I show that a Bayesian analysis of affirming the consequent helps us understand under which conditions abduction may be justified. This provides a Bayesian vindication of explanatory inference.