Analysis of Wal-Mart Stock Trend Based on CAPM Model

The Capital Asset Pricing Model (CAPM) model is an important theoretical model in finance. This theory can be used to estimate the price of the target asset and predict its future development trend. As a famous brand, Wal-Mart is an indispensable backbone in the stock consumption sector and has attracted much attention from investors. This paper uses direct data and the CAPM model to conduct a case study on Wal-Mart's US stocks. The historical data of the S&P 500 is used as a sample to calculate the market return rate R(M), the one-year US Treasury bond rate is used as the risk-free rate R(f), and the historical rate of change of Wal-Mart's stock is used as R(i) to calculate its sensitivity to systematic risk . The author uses Excel to perform regression analysis on the relevant data. The results show that the model passes the F test and T test, and the model is established; the model R 2 is 0.9676, which proves that the model fits well. The of Wal-Mart stock is 0.9676. This data can prove that the stock is positively correlated with the changes in the S&P 500 market, that is, the stock is close to the market systematic risk. The greater the risk, the better the stock performs. When investors predict that the US stock market is on an upward trend, they can hold the stock.