Transit-oriented Development (TOD) and Local Economic Vitality: Assessing TOD Effects on Consumer Expenditures in Seoul

We quantified the impact of transit-oriented development (TOD) on consumer expenditures in seven sectors, including retail, healthcare, culture, and education, in Seoul, South Korea, employing propensity score matching, ordinary least square regression, and geographically weighted regression (GWR).Our findings revealed that TOD significantly increases consumer expenditures, with sectoral effects ranging between 20.1 and 21.3%.Crucially, the GWR analysis highlights the spatially dependent nature of TOD impact, uncovering substantial local variations.Districts such as Gangnam, Songpa, Gangdong, and Gangseo-gu exhibit pronounced positive effects, with consumer spending increases exceeding 88.3%, indicating the potential of TOD as a catalyst for economic growth in these strategic areas.Conversely, areas such as Dobong, Seodaemun, and Geumcheon-gu show marginally negative effects, suggesting that TOD benefits are not uniformly distributed and may pose challenges in certain contexts.This study contributes to the literature by providing empirical evidence of the economic impact of TOD across diverse sectors and offering valuable insights for transportation and urban planning, emphasizing the need for context-sensitive approaches to maximize TOD outcomes.