In-situ prediction of soil organic carbon contents in wheat-rice rotation fields via visible near-infrared spectroscopy

Visible near-infrared (VNIR) spectroscopy is a reliable method for estimating soil properties. However, its effectiveness in accurately predicting soil organic carbon (SOC) contents, particularly in wheat-rice rotation fields, remains uncertain. In this study, we collected 202 samples from wheat-rice fields (0–20 ​cm) in southeastern China and measured in-situ spectra of the vertical surface of the soil cores and the laboratory spectra of the dried and sieved soil samples. Our study focused on evaluating three algorithms - external parameter orthogonalization (EPO), direct standardization (DS), and piecewise direct standardization (PDS) - to address the influence of external factors, particularly soil moisture. To carry out our analysis, the dataset was divided into calibration (141 samples) and validation (61 samples) sets via the Kennard-Stone algorithm. A subset of the corresponding in-situ and laboratory spectra in the calibration set (transfer set) was used to derive the transfer matrix for EPO, DS, and PDS, enabling the conversion of in-situ spectra to laboratory spectra by characterizing their differences. Four machine learning models, including cubist, partial least squares regression (PLSR), random forest (RF), and memory-based learning (MBL), were used to predict the SOC, particulate organic carbon (POC), and mineral-associated organic carbon (MAOC) contents based on the laboratory, in-situ , and corrected in-situ spectra. The results revealed that the laboratory spectra outperformed the non-corrected in-situ spectra, with coefficients of determination (R 2 ) of 0.91, 0.75, and 0.80 for SOC, POC, and MAOC, respectively. Among the models, MBL and PLSR exhibited the highest average R 2 at 0.85–0.86. EPO marginally improved the prediction accuracy (R 2 increased from 0.85 to 0.87 for SOC, 0.64 to 0.69 for POC, and 0.75 to 0.82 for MAOC). These promising prediction accuracies underscore the potential of VNIR spectra for in-situ predictions in wheat-rice fields in Southeast China, offering insights for predicting SOC contents via in-situ spectroscopy. • The MBL model exhibited the highest accuracy in predicting SOC, POC, and MAOC. • Laboratory and in-situ spectra can more accurately predict MAOC than POC. • EPO algorithm can marginally enhance the predictions of SOC, POC, and MAOC. • During low soil moisture periods, in-situ spectra can effectively predict SOC and its fractions.