Decreased accuracy of forensic DNA mixture analysis for groups with lower genetic diversity
Forensic investigation of DNA samples from multiple contributors has become commonplace. These complex analyses use statistical frameworks accounting for multiple levels of uncertainty in allelic contributions from different individuals, particularly for samples containing few molecules of DNA. These methods have been thoroughly tested along some axes of variation, but less attention has been paid to accuracy across human genetic variation. Here, we quantify the accuracy of DNA mixture analysis over 83 human groups. We find higher false inclusion rates for mixtures with more contributors and for groups with lower genetic diversity. Even for three-contributor mixtures where two contributors are known and the reference group is correctly specified, false inclusion rates are 1e-5 or higher for 36 out of 83 groups. This means that, depending on multiple testing, some false inclusions may be expected. These false positives could be lessened with more selective and conservative use of DNA mixture analysis.
Authors
- Chris Godek
- C. Hai Ly (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8513-5793)
- Maria Vega Flores (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7765-6700)
- Miguel Guardado (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1748-3956)
- Rori V. Rohlfs (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-2625-192X)
- Niquo Ceberio (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0765-5918)
- E Ho (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0009-0383-2551)
- Carina Kalaydjian (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0661-5287)
- Hannah Mariko Thorner (ORCID: https://orcid.org/0009-0006-7114-9031)
- Matt Paunovich
- Kamillah Felix
Institutions
- University of California, Los Angeles (US)
- University of Oregon (US)
- University of California, Santa Cruz (US)
- George Washington University (US)
- Northern Arizona University (US)
- Yale University (US)
- University of California San Francisco Medical Center (US)
- District of Columbia Department of Forensic Sciences (US)
- San Francisco State University (US)
Publication Details
- Journal
- iScience
- Published
- 2024-09-28
- DOI
- https://doi.org/10.1016/j.isci.2024.111067
- Citations
- 3
- Primary Topic
- Forensic and Genetic Research
- Type
- article
- Field-Weighted Citation Impact
- 1.65
Funders
- National Science Foundation
- Foundation for the National Institutes of Health
- Howard Hughes Medical Institute
- Genentech Foundation
- National Institute of Justice
- UCSF Foundation
- Life Sciences, University of California, Los Angeles