Developing an early warning system and risk assessment based on model for heat damage in rice

• Field-measured meteorological data constructed the system, and daily variation method was used in artificial climate boxes. • This system dynamically incorporates meteorological data from rice sowing to day before warning, supplemented by weekly forecasts. • This research offers insights & methodology for smart farming & agriculture disaster insurance indicator formulation. Aiming to enhance disaster damage assessment and prevention capabilities in rice production, we established a rice high-temperature early warning and disaster risk assessment system. Four representative rice varieties underwent high-temperature control experiments during key stages susceptible to heat injury. Using a rice development period model to calculate high-temperature damage rates, a risk assessment and early warning system for high-temperature stress in rice were developed. Single point and regional dynamic warning simulations of heat damage in rice was conducted and verified. The risk assessment results for high-temperature damage indicated a low risk for early rice in the double-cropping rice area of southeastern Fujian, mainly occurring during the flowering. Early rice in the northwestern double-cropping rice area experienced relatively high to sub-high risks, with frequencies between 62% and 80%. The mountainous single-cropping rice area in northwestern Fujian showed widespread susceptibility to low-risk heat injury. In 2020, a simulation of single-point dynamic warning for high-temperature stress in Fujian Province involving 12 representative rice varieties showed a higher probability of severe heat injury for early rice in the southeastern double-cropping rice area (disaster damage rate: 51.1–55.4%), while mild heat injury was observed in the northwestern double-cropping rice area (disaster damage rate:12.1–26.8%). The mountainous single-cropping rice area in northwest showed a relatively high probability of moderate heat injury (disaster damage rate:18.2–29.4%). The regional warning simulation results showed that the areas with severe heat damage was mainly concentrated in the southeast of Fujian, while the mountainous single season rice areas in the northwest was experiencing moderate heat damage. Overall, the risk of heat injury to both early and single-cropping rice in the northwest was more severe than in the southeast. Comparison of simulated disaster damage rates with actual local rice production disaster damage rates and meteorological yield trends demonstrated consistent and warning outcomes across spatial and temporal variations.