Explainable machine learning model of disorganisation in swarms of drones

The main challenges when managing a fleet of unmanned aerial vehicles are to ensure the relative stability of its formation and to minimise disorganisation, specifically when undergoing an intrusion. When planning the mission it is beneficial for the operator to set the parameters of the formation to balance the needs of the mission with the disorganisation that an intruder may cause. The model developed in this research predicts the anticipated disturbance as a function of the parameters of the formation. The effectiveness of six machine learning methods are compared with a previously established baseline, using data obtained from simulations. CatBoost (categorical boosting) delivered the best results, with an <mml:math xmlns:mml="http://www.w3.org/1998/Math/MathML"><mml:msup><mml:mi>R</mml:mi> <mml:mn>2</mml:mn></mml:msup> </mml:math> (coefficient of determination) value of 83.3%, representing an improvement of 80% over the baseline. The SHAP (Shapley Additive Explanations) method was used to extend the model beyond predictability for particular combinations of values of parameters, towards generalised recommendations for the operator of the formation.