Machine Learning Modeling for Predicting Tensile Strain Capacity of Pipelines and Identifying Key Factors

Abstract Machine learning (ML) techniques have recently gained great attention across a multitude of engineering domains, including pipeline materials. However, their application to tensile strain capacity (TSC) modeling remains unexplored. To bridge this gap, this study developed and evaluated an ML model to predict the tensile strain capacity of girth-welded pipelines. The model was trained on over 20,000 data points derived from a TSC equation available in the literature. The ML model demonstrated robust performance in predicting tensile strain capacities. Evidence of this lies in the near-zero means, minimal standard deviations, and normal distribution of residuals for both the training and test datasets. These collectively suggest that the model provides a good fit for the data. Furthermore, the model's loss behavior indicates successful convergence and generalization, without signs of overfitting or underfitting. An analysis using the random forest method revealed that the geometry of the flaw, specifically the flaw depth, is the most influential variable in predicting the TSC. This could be attributed to its significant impact on the fracture toughness of materials. In contrast, material properties and fracture toughness exert less influence relatively, despite their contributions to the model. This finding underscores the importance of flaw geometry in TSC prediction models. Overall, the development of a data-driven TSC model has shown efficient TSC modeling. This model leverages ML techniques, allowing for continuous updates with new data via deep learning.