Impact of risk information on health beliefs and behaviours: experimental evidence

The local prevalence of infections and the severity of their consequences are among the key determinants of the adoption of preventive behaviours against infectious diseases. In Bangladesh, where local COVID-19 infection statistics were not readily accessible, I found that most people underestimated the local prevalence of COVID-19 infections while overestimated the fatality rate. In a randomized experiment, the treatment group was provided with information about the coronavirus case numbers in their districts, along with the case fatality rate in Bangladesh and globally. Immediately after receiving this information, the treatment group perceived a higher infection risk. Nine to fifteen days post-intervention, those who received information were less likely to underestimate the local prevalence and, consequently, still perceived a higher infection risk. They also updated their belief about the fatality rate downward. Potentially due to this countervailing update of risk beliefs, the information had no effect on self-reported preventive behaviours.