Study on the response mechanisms and evolution prediction of groundwater microbial‐toxicological indicators

Abstract This study aims to investigate the response mechanisms of groundwater microbial‐toxicological indicators, specifically total bacteria count (TBC) and total coliform count (TCC), to water quality indicators and environmental conditions. Using data from a water source in the western plateau of China, a predictive model focusing on TBC and TCC was developed. An orthogonal experimental design was employed to manipulate environmental conditions such as temperature, pH, and porosity, facilitating laboratory experiments. These experiments measured pH, chemical oxygen demand (COD), oxidation–reduction potential (ORP), TBC, and TCC at varying depths and environmental conditions. Principal component analysis elucidated the mechanisms by which water quality indicators and environmental conditions affect groundwater microbial–toxicological indicators. A prediction model for these indicators in plateau regions was established based on a backpropagation neural network (BP‐NN), using TBC and TCC as target variables and the newly extracted principal components as influencing factors. The results demonstrate that environmental conditions and water quality indicators primarily influence the evolution of groundwater microbial–toxicological indicators by altering the ionic charge quantities, redox conditions, and temperature of the groundwater. The predictive model for groundwater microbial–toxicological indicators shows trends consistent with experimental outcomes, with an average relative error of less than 15%, meeting engineering requirements. Practitioner points The values of total bacteria count (TBC) and total coliform count (TCC) under different conditions were obtained by column experiments. The influence mechanism of environmental conditions and groundwater indicators on TBC and TCC was elaborated by principal component analysis. TBC and TCC prediction models were established through the investigation of water sources in a plateau area and laboratory experiments.