Dynamics of urban development patterns on thermal distributions and their implications on water spread areas of Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India

Recent satellite maps have reported that India is experiencing extreme heat waves, surpassing even Middle Eastern countries. This study addresses a critical gap in understanding how land use land cover (LULC) changes impact land surface temperature (LST), urban heat intensity (UHI), and water spread area (WSA) in rapidly growing cities such as Vellore and Katpadi over three decades (1997–2024). We used Landsat thermal bands and the support vector machine (SVM) algorithm to investigate LULC and LST patterns, examining the effects of urbanization and water body reduction on local climate dynamics. The LULC results showed an increase in built-up lands from 5.89 to 25.89%, while zooming water areas shrank from 3.15 to 1.02%. LST showed a significant increasing trend, with temperatures for water bodies and vegetation ranging from 17.4°C to 26°C, and for barren and built-up areas from 28°C to 42.6°C. The results of the multivariate analysis revealed a positive correlation between LST and the Normalized Difference Built-up Index (NDBI) and negative correlations between LST and the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the Modified Normalized Difference Water Index (MNDWI). Moreover, spatial and time series analyses of WSAs indicated a significant increase in LST. Furthermore, a strong negative correlation was found between WSA and LST, with a 10% decrease in WSA potentially increasing LST by 0.12°C to 0.55°C in surrounding regions. This study offers important contributions to improving land use policy and water resource management in urban areas, while addressing environmental concerns related to rising temperatures. The findings underscore the urgency of mitigating heat impacts and managing water resources in rapidly expanding cities. Our results provide valuable insights for policymakers and practitioners aiming to develop more sustainable, resilient, and livable urban environments.