Prediction of Energy Consumption and Carbon Dioxide Emissions in Gansu Province of China under the Background of “Double Carbon”

Gansu Province in China has the characteristics of an underdeveloped economy, low forest carbon sink, and rich non-fossil energy, making it a typical area for research to achieve the “double carbon” target. In this paper, the primary energy consumption and carbon emissions and their development trends in Gansu Province during the “double carbon” target period were predicted by the fixed-base energy consumption elasticity coefficient method, and the possibility of achieving the “double carbon” target in Gansu Province was explored. In the three hypothetical scenarios, it was estimated that the total primary energy consumption of Gansu Province will be 91.9–94.81 million tons of standard coal by 2030 and 99.35–110.76 million tons of standard coal by 2060. According to the predicted share of different energy consumption in Gansu Province, the CO2 emissions of Gansu Province in the three scenarios were calculated and predicted to be between 148.60 and 153.31 million tons in 2030 and 42.10 and 46.93 million tons in 2060. The study suggests that Gansu Province can reach the carbon peak before 2030 in the hypothetical scenarios. However, to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, it was proposed that, in addition to increasing carbon sinks by afforestation, it is also necessary to increase the share of non-fossil energy. As long as the share is increased by 0.3% on the basis of 2030, the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060 in Gansu Province can be achieved. The results show that the increase in the share of non-fossil energy consumption is the most important way to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province, and it also needs to be combined with the optimization of industrial structure and improvement of technological progress. Based on the research results, some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to achieve the goal of carbon neutrality in Gansu Province.