Sustainable Groundwater Management Using Machine Learning-Based DRASTIC Model in Rurbanizing Riverine Region: A Case Study of Kerman Province, Iran

Groundwater salinization poses a critical threat to sustainable development in arid and semi-arid rurbanizing regions, exemplified by Kerman Province, Iran. This region experiences groundwater ecosystem degradation as a result of the rapid conversion of rural agricultural land to urban areas under chronic drought conditions. This study aims to enhance Groundwater Pollution Risk (GwPR) mapping by integrating the DRASTIC index with machine learning (ML) models, including Random Forest (RF), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), Generalized Linear Model (GLM), Support Vector Machine (SVM), and Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS), alongside hydrogeochemical investigations, to promote sustainable water management in Kerman Province. The RF model achieved the highest accuracy with an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of 0.995 in predicting GwPR, outperforming BRT (0.988), SVM (0.977), MARS (0.951), and GLM (0.887). The RF-based map identified new high-vulnerability zones in the northeast and northwest and showed an expanded moderate vulnerability zone, covering 48.46% of the study area. Analysis revealed exceedances of WHO standards for total hardness (TH), sodium, sulfates, chlorides, and electrical conductivity (EC) in these high-vulnerability areas, indicating contamination from mineralized aquifers and unsustainable agricultural practices. The findings underscore the RF model’s effectiveness in groundwater prediction and highlight the need for stricter monitoring and management, including regulating groundwater extraction and improving water use efficiency in riverine aquifers.