A Network Reliability Analysis Method for Complex Real-Time Systems: Case Studies in Railway and Maritime Systems

The analysis of complex system reliability is an area of growing interest, particularly given the diverse and intricate nature of the subsystems and components these systems encompass. Tackling the reliability of such multifaceted systems presents challenges, including component wear, multiple failure modes, the cascading effects of these failures, and the associated uncertainties, which require careful consideration. While traditional studies have examined these elements, the dynamic interplay of information between subsystems and the overarching system has only recently begun to draw focus. A notably understudied aspect is the reliability analysis of complex real-time systems that must adapt to evolving operational conditions. This paper proposes a novel methodology for assessing the reliability of complex real-time systems. This method integrates complex network theory, thus capturing the intricate operational characteristics of these systems, with adjustments to several key complex network parameters to define the nuances of communication within the network framework. To showcase the efficacy and adaptability of our approach, we present case studies on railway and maritime systems. For the railway system, our analysis spans various operational scenarios: from single train operations to simultaneous operations across multiple or different radio block center regions, accounting for node and edge failures. In maritime systems, the case studies employing the VHF data exchange system under operational scenarios are subject to network reliability analysis, successfully pinpointing critical vulnerabilities and modules of high importance. The findings of our research are promising, demonstrating that the proposed method not only accurately evaluates the overall reliability of complex systems but also identifies the pivotal weak points—be it modules or links—warranting attention for system enhancement.