Development of a clinical risk score for the prediction of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia in hospitalised patients

The performance and availability of invasive and non-invasive investigations for the diagnosis of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP) vary across clinical settings. Estimating the pre-test probability of PCP is essential to the optimal selection and interpretation of diagnostic tests, such as the 1,3-β-D-glucan assay (BDG), for the prioritization of bronchoscopy, and to guide empiric treatment decisions. We aimed to develop a multivariable risk score to estimate the pre-test probability of PCP. The score was developed from a cohort of 626 individuals who underwent bronchoscopy for the purposes of identifying PCP in a Canadian tertiary-care centre, between 2015 and 2018. We conducted a nested case-control study of 57 cases and 228 unmatched controls. Demographic, clinical, laboratory, and radiological data were included in a multivariable logistic regression model to estimate adjusted odds ratios for PCP diagnosis. A clinical risk score was derived from the multivariable model and discrimination was assessed by estimating the score’s receiver operating characteristic curve. Participants had a median age of 60 years (interquartile range [IQR] 49–68) and 115 (40%) were female; 40 (14%) had HIV and 49 (17%) had a solid organ transplant (SOT). The risk score included prior SOT or HIV with CD4 ≤ 200/µL (+ 2), serum lactate dehydrogenase ≥ 265.5 IU/mL (+ 2), radiological pattern typical of PCP on chest x-ray (+ 2) or CT scan (+ 2.5), and PCP prophylaxis with trimethoprim-sulfamethoxazole (-3) or other antimicrobials (-2). The median score was 4 points (IQR, 2-4.5) corresponding to a 28% probability of PCP. The risk prediction model had good discrimination with a c-statistic of 0.79 (0.71–0.84). Given the operating characteristics of the BDG assay, scores ≤ 3 in patients without HIV, and ≤ 5.5 in those with HIV, paired with a negative BDG, would be expected to rule out PCP with 95% certainty. We propose the PCP Score to estimate pre-test probability of PCP. Once validated, it should help clinicians determine which patients to refer for invasive investigations, when to rely on serological testing, and in whom to consider pre-emptive treatment.