Assessment of Landscape Ecological Risk and Its Driving Factors for the Ebinur Lake Basin from 1985 to 2022

The Ebinur Lake Basin (ELB), which is a typical watershed in an arid region, has an extremely delicate natural ecosystem. Rapid urbanisation and economic growth have triggered substantial ecological and environmental transformations in this key economic hub of Xinjiang. However, a comprehensive and systematic knowledge of the evolving ecological conditions in the ELB remains limited. Therefore, this study modelled the landscape ecological risk index (LERI) using land use/land cover (LULC) data from 1985 to 2022 and assessed the drivers of landscape ecological risk (LER) using a geographical detector model (GDM). The findings revealed that (1) from 1985 to 2022, the construction land, cropland, and forestland areas in the ELB increased, whereas those of water bodies, grasslands, and barren land decreased. (2) Between 1985 and 2022, LER in the ELB showed a downward trend. Spatially, LER was predominantly characterised by lower and lowest risk levels. The higher and highest risk status has been around Ebinur lake and has continued to improve each year. (3) Climatic factors, particularly temperature and precipitation, were identified as the most significant drivers of the LER change from 1985 to 2022. The findings provide crucial scientific knowledge for advancing sustainable development and maintaining ecological security in the ELB.