A Sample Average Approximation Approach for Stochastic Optimization of Flight Test Planning with Sorties Uncertainty

In the context of flight test planning, numerous uncertainties exist, encompassing aircraft status, number of flights, and weather conditions, among others. These uncertainties ultimately manifest significantly in the actual number of flight sorties executed, rendering high significance to engineering problems related to the execution of flight test missions. However, there is a dearth of research in this specific aspect. To address this gap, this paper proposes an opportunity-constrained integer programming model tailored to the unique characteristics of the problem. To handle the uncertainties, Sample Average Approximation (SAA) is employed to perform oversampling of the uncertain parameters, followed by the Adaptive Large Neighborhood Search (ALNS) algorithm to solve for the optimal solution and objective function value. Results from numerical experiments conducted at varying scales and validated with diverse sampling distributions demonstrate the effectiveness and robustness of the proposed methodology. By decoding the generated execution sequences, comprehensive mission planning schemes can be derived. This approach yields sequences that exhibit commendable feasibility and robustness for the flight test planning problem with sorties uncertainty (FTPPSU), offering valuable support for the efficient execution of future flight test missions.