Multipolarity in the Arctic: New economic opportunities and geopolitical risks for Russia, India and China

Aim. To show new economic opportunities and geopolitical risks for Russia, India and China through the opening of new trade routes, such as the Northern Sea Route and the North-South International Transport Corridor, as factors in the formation of multipolarity in the Arctic. Objectives. To analyze the extent to which new transport arteries will serve to reduce trade costs and improve economic ties between the People’s Republic of China (PRC), Russia and India; to assess whether new opportunities for cooperation between Russia and the leading countries of the Asia-Pacific region will be created in the near future. Methods. The research methodology is based on analyzing a list of key Chinese projects in the Arctic over the past ten years and a list of key Indian projects over the past five years. Results. The priorities of China and India in their interaction with Russia in the Arctic direction are demonstrated. Thus, China is actively promoting the concept of the Polar Silk Road (PSR). The PSP is a continuation of the Chinese initiative “One Belt, One Road” in the Arctic, which in 2013. Xi Jinping proclaimed to revitalize East-West trade along the historic Silk Road route.The development of alternative routes for China is also important in terms of the “Malacca dilemma,” that is, China’s vulnerability to maritime blockade due to the limited number of alternative routes and potential control by outside powers. India, for its part, is lobbying for another project, the INSTC (International North-South Transport Corridor), which acts as an alternative to China’s One Belt, One Road initiative but also provides a 25-day trade route from Russia. Conclusions. The list of large-scale projects being implemented by China to develop Arctic resources over the past ten years demonstrates a high interest in preserving the Polar region as a territory of constructive dialog and mutually beneficial cooperation. The sphere of mutual cooperation with China in the Arctic is wide: shipbuilding, timber industry, fuel and energy complex (FEC), nuclear power, and industrial equipment. Cooperation with India is developing in a somewhat different aspect; the list of India’s key Arctic projects in the Arctic is less voluminous than that with China. The projects are mainly focused on the resource potential of the Arctic fuel and energy complex. The impression is that India is trying to seek benefits for itself more than working with Russia on the terms of a mutually beneficial partnership. In addition, India has received an invitation to join NATO, which demonstrates the existence of favorable relations with the alliance.