Modeling and forecasting biogas production from anaerobic digestion process for sustainable resource energy recovery

Anaerobic digestion (AD) is one of the most extensively accepted processes for organic waste cleanup, and production of both bioenergy and organic fertilizer. Numerous mathematical models have been conceived for modeling the anaerobic process. In this study, a new modified dynamic mathematical model for the simulation of the biochemical and physicochemical processes involved in the AD process for biogas production was proposed. The model was validated, and a sensitivity analysis based on the OAT approach (one-at-a-time) was carried out as a screening technique to identify the most sensitive parameters. The model was developed by updating the bio-chemical framework and including more details concerning the physico-chemical process. The fraction X_P was incorporated into the model as a particulate inert product arising from biomass decay (inoculum). New components were included to distinguish between the substrate and inoculum, and a surface-based kinetics was used to model the substrate disintegration. Additionally, the sulfate reduction process and hydrogen sulfide production have been included. The model was validated using data extracted from the literature. The model's ability to generate accurate predictions was testified using statistical metrics. The model exhibited excellent performance in forecasting the parameters related to the biogas process, with measurements falling within a reasonable error margin. The relative absolute error (rAE) and root mean square error (RMSE) were both less than 5 %, indicating a high ability of the current model in comparison with the literature. Additionally, the scatter index (SI) was below 10 %, and the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NES) approached one, which affirms the model's accuracy and reliability. Finally, the model was applied to investigate the performances of the AD of food waste (FW). The findings of this study support the robustness of the developed model and its applicability as a virtual platform to evaluate the efficiency of the AD treatment and to forecast biogas production and its quality, CO₂ emission, and energy potential across various organic solid waste types.