Carbon sequestration potential of tree planting in China

China's large-scale tree planting programs are critical for achieving its carbon neutrality by 2060, but determining where and how to plant trees for maximum carbon sequestration has not been rigorously assessed. Here, we developed a comprehensive machine learning framework that integrates diverse environmental variables to quantify tree growth suitability and its relationship with tree numbers. Then, their correlations with biomass carbon stocks were robustly established. Carbon sink potentials were mapped in distinct tree-planting scenarios. Under one of them aligned with China's ecosystem management policy, 44.7 billion trees could be planted, increasing forest stock by 9.6 ± 0.8 billion m³ and sequestering 5.9 ± 0.5 PgC equivalent to double China's 2020 industrial CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. We found that tree densification within existing forests is an economically viable and effective strategy and so it should be a priority in future large-scale planting programs.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2024-09-27
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-024-52785-6
Citations
76
Primary Topic
Forest Management and Policy
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
21.48

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article

Carbon sequestration potential of tree planting in China

Shilong Piao, Lin Yang, Chenghu Zhou, Pete Smith et al.
76 citations
Nature Communications
Forest Management and Policy
21.48
article

Carbon sequestration potential of tree planting in China

Shilong Piao, Lin Yang, Chenghu Zhou, Pete Smith, Jun Qin, Xi Chen, Ling Yao, Tang Liu, Hou Jiang
article en
76 citations

Abstract

China's large-scale tree planting programs are critical for achieving its carbon neutrality by 2060, but determining where and how to plant trees for maximum carbon sequestration has not been rigorously assessed. Here, we developed a comprehensive machine learning framework that integrates diverse environmental variables to quantify tree growth suitability and its relationship with tree numbers. Then, their correlations with biomass carbon stocks were robustly established. Carbon sink potentials were mapped in distinct tree-planting scenarios. Under one of them aligned with China's ecosystem management policy, 44.7 billion trees could be planted, increasing forest stock by 9.6 ± 0.8 billion m³ and sequestering 5.9 ± 0.5 PgC equivalent to double China's 2020 industrial CO<sub>2</sub> emissions. We found that tree densification within existing forests is an economically viable and effective strategy and so it should be a priority in future large-scale planting programs.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 15(1)
Yunnan Normal University (CN), University of Aberdeen (GB), Chinese Academy of Sciences (CN), Peking University (CN), Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography (CN), Institute of Tibetan Plateau Research (CN), Guangzhou Institute of Geography (CN), Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research (CN), Nanjing University (CN)
National Natural Science Foundation of China, Chinese Academy of Sciences
Zero hunger
Openalex Percentile: Top 0%
Forest Management and Policy
21.48
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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