Construction and assessment of a fire risk index system for typical grasslands in Xinjiang, China

Abstract Background Fire hazards have a substantial impact on grassland ecosystems, and they are becoming more frequent and widespread because of global changes and human activities. However, there is still a lack of a widely accepted or practical method to evaluate grassland fire risk. In our study of typical grasslands in northern Xinjiang, we selected 18 evaluation indicators for grassland fires from three aspects of hazard, exposure, and vulnerability. Employing the analytic hierarchy process, weighted comprehensive evaluation method, and standard deviation classification, we determined the fire risk level thresholds, aiming to develop efficient and precise methods for assessing grassland fire risks, and ultimately created a grid-based map of grassland fire risk levels. Results The risk level of grassland fires is determined by the combined spatial heterogeneity of fire-causing factors’ hazard and fire hazard-bearing bodies’ vulnerability and exposure. The hazard of grassland fire and fire hazard-bearing bodies’ vulnerability and exposure are dominated by medium level and medium–low level. Most areas of grassland fire risk levels are medium–low, medium, or medium–high risk, with few areas being high risk or low risk. The grassland fire risk exhibits a spatial distribution characterized by higher risks in the western and lower in the eastern; high and medium–high risk areas are primarily distributed in the western and some northeastern regions of the study area. The simulate result effectively represents the spatial distribution of grassland fire in the research area. Conclusion We established a grassland fire risk index system and model, creating a spatial distribution map of grassland fire risk levels based on grid. Few grassland areas have fire risks and show a patchy distribution. The results generally reflect the spatial distribution pattern of grassland fire risks in the study area. This research provides technical support for scientifically formulating local grassland fire disaster prevention and relief strategies.