The conditional effects of party system change on economic growth in Africa

Abstract African party systems vary considerably in their patterns of stability and change over time. This article examines how economic growth has been shaped by such party system fluidity—in particular, the frequency, scope and variety of change—while taking account of the constitutional regime (i.e., level of democracy) within which these party system dynamics occur. To do so, we use Arellano-Bond generalized method of moments models to test the impact of party system fluidity and the level of democracy on economic growth in Africa during the post-independence period (1970–2018). We find, consistent with previous research, that democracy has an uncertain effect on growth. However, party system fluidity is reliably and positively correlated with growth. Its effects are particularly strong whenever an unstable party system coexists with an autocratic regime, which suggests that this specific political context—which has often been associated with democratization—is especially conducive to economic growth.