Running with the bulls

Context . Stars and planets form in regions of enhanced stellar density, subjecting protoplanetary discs to gravitational perturbations from neighbouring stars. Observations in the Taurus star-forming region have uncovered evidence of at least three recent, star-disc encounters that have truncated discs (HV/DO Tau, RW Aurigae, and UX Tau), raising questions about the frequency of such events. Aims . We aim to assess the probability of observing truncating star-disc encounters in Taurus. Methods . We generated a physically motivated dynamical model including binaries and a spatial-kinematic substructure to follow the historical dynamical evolution of the Taurus star-forming region. We used this model to track star-disc encounters and the resulting outer disc truncation over the lifetime of Taurus. Results . A quarter of discs are truncated below 30 au by dynamical encounters, but this truncation mostly occurs in binaries over the course of a few orbital periods, on a timescale ≲0.1 Myr. Nonetheless, some truncating encounters still occur up to the present age of Taurus. Strongly truncating encounters (ejecting ≳10 percent of the disc mass) occur at a rate ∼10 Myr −1 , sufficient to explain the encounter between HV and DO Tau ∼0.1 Myr ago. If encounters that eject only ∼1 percent of the disc mass are responsible for RW Aurigae and UX Tau, then they are also expected with encounter rate Γ enc ∼ 100–200 Myr −1 . However, the observed sample of recent encounters is probably incomplete, since these examples occurred in systems that are not consistent with a random drawing from the mass function. One more observed example would statistically imply additional physics, such as replenishment of the outer disc material. Conclusions . The marginal consistency of the frequency of observed recent star-disc encounters with theoretical expectations underlines the value of future large surveys searching for external structures associated with recent encounters. The outcome of such a survey offers a highly constraining, novel probe of protoplanetary disc physics.