Spatial non-stationarity effects of the driving factors on landscape ecological risk: A case of the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration, China

• Investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of LER with long-time series data. • ERA has been applied to overcome the subjectivity of factor selection. • Construction land, Precipitation, Road and DEM were optimal factor combination of LER. • The spatial non-stationarity features of each factor were revealed by MGWR. Increasing construction land demands and population growth within urban agglomerations have led to increasingly prominent landscape ecological risk (LER) issues. However, the multi-scale nature and spatial non-stationarity characteristics of the driving patterns have not been fully investigated. In this study, taking the Xiamen-Zhangzhou-Quanzhou Urban Agglomeration (XZQUA) as a case, we analyzed the spatio-temporal evolution characteristics of LER utilizing the long time series land use data from 1980 to 2020; then, the Exploratory Regression Analysis (ERA) was employed to investigate the optimal combination of key influential elements affecting LER. Finally, the Multiscale Geographically Weighted regression (MGWR) model was applied to explore the spatial non-stationarity effects of the key driving elements. The results reveal that: (1) The LER of the XZQUA has shown a declining trend from 1980 to 2020, characterized with significantly and increasingly spatial autocorrelation as well. (2) The optimal variable combination is the temperature, distance from roads, elevation, and construction land area. (3) The MGWR model results reveal that the impact of various factors on LER demonstrates significant spatial non-stationarity. The mechanisms and intensity of these influences change depending on geographical location. The negative proportion of regression coefficients for construction land area (−0.203 to −0.002) and elevation (−0.046 to −0.001) all exceeded 80%, indicating a high negative effect on LER; The positive proportion of the regression coefficient for distance from roads (−0.026 to 0.042) exceeded 60%, indicating a predominantly positive effect on LER. Our findings provide guidance for regional policymakers to adopt targeted ecological risk intervention measures, thus reducing LER in the urban agglomeration.