Assessing the substitutability of mobile and fixed internet: The impact of 5G services on consumer valuation and price elasticity

In this study, we explore the dynamics of consumer choices in the Polish telecommunications market, focusing on preferences and valuations for home fixed, home mobile, and purely mobile Internet connections. Key attributes such as speed, latency, data limits, and cost are examined. Central to our research is the investigation of how the integration of 5G technology might influence demand elasticity. Using a detailed discrete choice experiment, we apply a mixed logit model with random parameters to analyze stated choice data, enabling us to unravel the complexities of demand elasticity, especially in terms of own and cross-price elasticities. This approach facilitates an assessment of the degree of substitutability between fixed and mobile Internet services. Our findings indicate a moderate substitution effect between fixed and mobile Internet services. Results from a Small but Significant and Non-transitory Increase in Price (SSNIP) test suggest that these markets should continue to be regulated separately, mirroring the distinct regulation observed in fixed and mobile telephony. Furthermore, simulations provide insights into potential future market shifts with the advent of 5G services. This paper contributes significantly to the discourse on fixed-mobile Internet substitution and offers vital insights for defining markets in antitrust discussions, competitive agreements, and potential mergers within the telecom sector. • Moderate substitution between fixed and mobile internet services identified. • 5G technology forecasted to increase mobile internet's substitutability. • Advanced mixed logit model applied to analyze consumer choice dynamics. • Findings recommend continued separate regulation for fixed and mobile markets. • Study provides strategic insights for adapting to 5G in telecom policies.