A Study on the Heterogeneity of China’s Provincial Economic Growth Contribution to Carbon Emissions

Achieving “dual carbon” targets by containing carbon emissions while sustaining economic growth is challenging. This study examines the varying carbon dependency levels among China’s 30 provincial-level administrative units, considering spatial correlations in emissions. Using a semi-parametric varying coefficient spatial autoregressive panel model on 2004–2019 panel data, this study shows the following: (i) The relationship between economic growth and carbon emissions forms an “S”-shaped curve, with the contribution decreasing as tertiary industry grows, defining three stages of carbon dependency. (ii) There is significant heterogeneity in carbon dependency across provinces, with some advancing to “weak dependency” or an “economic carbon peak” due to advantages and policies. (iii) Dependency levels shift over time, with “weak dependency” being the predominant stage, though transitions occur. (iv) A positive spatial spillover effect in emissions was noted. This study recommends tailored policies for each provincial-level administrative unit based on their carbon dependency and development stage.