Environmental Simulation Model Using System Dynamics to Estimate Air Pollution: A Case Study of Mexico City Metropolitan Area

Air pollution in megacities worldwide has been a severe public health and environmental problem; it contributes to climate change and threatens life. Among all services, the transport sector accounts for most of these pollutants. However, despite the strategies implemented to reduce these pollutants, mitigate their effects, and promote prosperity and sustainability, emission reduction targets remain unmet, causing the average global temperatures to keep increasing. In this study, the air pollution in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is estimated through the design of an environmental simulation model using system dynamics, which constitutes a possibility for authorities to foresee the evolution of air quality in MCMA by assessing the emissions from the transport sector from a holistic perspective, based on the region DESTEP analysis factors. Simulation results estimate a more significant reduction than predicted by the local government’s current forecast; this emission reduction would be up to 106% lower for PM10, 176% for PM2.5, 34% for NOx, and 17% for VOC. The conclusion demonstrated that one of the main factors with the most significant impact on the control and reduction of emissions is the use and promotion of public transportation, along with the improvement of its road infrastructure.