Research on carbon sink prices in China’s marine fisheries: an analysis based on transcendental logarithmic production function model from 1979 to 2022

Enhancing marine carbon sequestration through nearshore aquaculture is a novel scientific approach to addressing global climate change and facilitating low-carbon development. Scientifically estimating the quantity and price of China’s marine fisheries carbon sinks provides a crucial foundation for promoting marine carbon trading. In this article, firstly, the long-term carbon storage capacity of China’s marine carbon sequestration fishery available from 1979 to 2022 for carbon trading is calculated. And then a transcendental logarithmic production function model incorporating ridge regression analysis, and an accounting equation for estimating the shadow price of China’s marine fisheries carbon sequestration are established. Simultaneously, the distortion level of China’s marine fisheries carbon sequestration prices from 2015 to 2022 is measured, and the reasons and economic effects of the distortion in prices are analyzed. The research results show that: 1) The capacity of a net carbon sequestration in China’s marine carbon sequestration fishery for carbon trading, ranged from 78,869.01 tons in 1979 to 1,232,762.27 tons in 2022, with an average annual capacity of 592,472.07 tons and an average annual growth rate of 7.48%; 2) The price of China’s marine fisheries carbon sinks increased from 39.46 CNY in 1979 to 375.96 CNY in 2022, with an average annual growth rate of 6.00%. The average annual price was 167.87 CNY; 3) There were varying degrees of distortion in China’s marine fisheries carbon sequestration prices from 2015 to 2022, which decreased annually with the construction of China’s own carbon trading market and the practice of trading. To realize the value of marine fisheries carbon sequestration, it is necessary to actively promote the development of voluntary emission reduction markets, develop carbon trading futures markets, and strengthen the dynamic monitoring system for resources.