Does the Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban Policy in All Natural Forests Affect Farmers’ Income?—An Empirical Study Based on County-Level Data in China

The Comprehensive Commercial Logging Ban Policy in all natural forests (CCLBP) as the strictest forest conservation measure brings uncertainty to the income of farmers engaged in forest land management. Therefore, clarifying the impact and heterogeneity of the CCLBP on farmers’ income has become a significant issue of current concern. Based on county-level panel data from China covering the period 2000–2020, this study uses Regression Discontinuity Design (RDD) to identify the impact of the CCLBP on farmers’ income. The empirical results show that (1) the CCLBP has a significantly positive effect on farmers’ income, with the policy leading to an increase in farmers’ income of approximately RMB 411–582; (2) the impact of the CCLBP on farmers’ income exhibits regional heterogeneity, with significant positive effects observed in Hebei, Shandong, Hubei, and Shaanxi, significant negative effects observed in Guangxi, and insignificant effects observed in other provinces; and (3) the CCLBP not only promotes the development of non-agricultural industries and labor mobility but also effectively reduces capital outflow, thereby increasing farmers’ income. This study contributes to the understanding of the underlying mechanisms between the CCLBP and farmers’ income, and it has significant practical implications for promoting the increase in farmers’ income, narrowing the income gap among farmers, and achieving common prosperity. It can also provide valuable insights and guidance for global forest protection.