Research on Response Strategies for Inland Waterway Vessel Traffic Risk Based on Cost-Effect Trade-Offs

Compared to maritime vessel traffic accidents, there is a scarcity of available, and only incomplete, accident data for inland waterway accidents. Additionally, the characteristics of different waterway segments vary significantly, and the factors affecting navigation safety risks and their mechanisms may also differ. Meanwhile, in recent years, extreme weather events have been frequent in inland waterways, and there has been a clear trend towards larger vessels, bringing about new safety hazards and management challenges. Currently, research on inland waterway navigation safety risks mainly focuses on risk assessment, with scarce quantitative studies on risk mitigation measures. This paper proposes a new method for improving inland waterway traffic safety, based on a cost-effectiveness trade-off approach to mitigate the risk of vessel traffic accidents. The method links the effectiveness and cost of measures and constructs a comprehensive cost-benefit evaluation model using fuzzy Bayesian and quantification conversion techniques, considering the reduction effects of risk mitigation measures under uncertain conditions and the various costs they may incur. Taking the upper, middle, and lower reaches of the Yangtze River as examples, this research evaluates key risk mitigation measures for different waterway segments and provides the most cost-effective strategies. Findings reveal that, even if different waterways share the same key risk sources, the most cost-effective measures vary due to environmental differences. Moreover, there is no inherent correlation between the best-performing measures in terms of benefits and the lowest-cost measures, nor are they necessarily recommended. The proposed method and case studies provide theoretical support for scientifically formulating risk mitigation measures in complex environments and offer guidance for inland waterway management departments to determine future key work directions.