How water, temperature, and seismicity control the preconditioning of massive rock slope failure (Hochvogel)

Abstract. The anticipation of massive rock slope failures is a key mitigation strategy in a changing climate and environment requiring a precise understanding of pre-failure process dynamics. Here we exploit >4 years of multi-method high-resolution monitoring data from a large rock slope instability close to failure. To quantify and understand the effect of possible drivers (water from rain and snowmelt, internal rock fracturing, and earthquakes), we correlate slope displacements with environmental data, local seismic recordings, and earthquake catalogues. During the snowmelt phase, displacements are controlled by meltwater infiltration with high correlation and a time lag of 4–9 d. During the snow-free summer, rainfall induces accelerations with a time lag of 1–16 h for up to several days without a minimum activation rain sum threshold. Rock fracturing, linked to temperature and freeze–thaw cycles, is predominantly near the surface and unrelated to displacement rates. A classic Newmark analysis of recent and historic earthquakes indicates a low potential for immediate triggering of a major failure at the case site, unless it is already very close to failure. Seismic topographic amplification of the peak ground velocity (PGV) at the summit ranges from a factor of 2–11 and is spatially heterogeneous, indicating a high criticality of the slope. The presented in-depth monitoring data analysis enables a comprehensive rockfall driver evaluation and indicates where future climatic changes, e.g. in precipitation intensity and frequency, may alter the preconditioning of major rock slope failures.