The locust plagues of the Ming Dynasty in Shandong Province, China

In today’s era of unprecedented climate change, research on environmental changes and natural disasters remains crucial. Locust plagues, among the most devastating agricultural disasters, had a profound impact on ancient China, especially during the Little Ice Age. This study utilizes historical records of locust plagues, employing semantic quantification, index construction and spatial analysis, to explore their temporal distribution, spatial patterns, migration characteristics, and associations with climate factors in Shandong during the Ming Dynasty. Key findings include: (1) Locust plagues in Shandong were severe, with 599 documented occurrences, primarily in summer and autumn, especially from April to August. The frequency and intensity of these outbreaks increased significantly during the mid to late Ming Dynasty, peaking in the late Ming period. (2) Geographically, locust plagues were concentrated in the northern river regions of Shandong, particularly in cities like Jinan, Dezhou, and Weifang, with marked clustering, spatial heterogeneity, and positive spatial correlation. (3) Locust plagues were strongly linked to droughts, showing significant temporal and spatial synchrony, but had no significant correlation with floods. These plagues were more likely to occur during cooler and drier periods, with both temperature and precipitation significantly influencing their occurrence.