Evaluating Policy Efficacy in Higher Education: A Synthetic Control Analysis of Ecuador’s Higher Education Law on Research Productivity

Background: This paper investigates the impact of Ecuador’s Ley Orgánica de Educación Superior (LOES), enacted in 2010, which mandated comprehensive reforms in higher education. Objective: The objective of this study is to determine whether the implementation of the LOES has led to a significant increase in academic publications in Ecuador, thereby contributing to sustainable educational practices and aligning with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). In this context, sustainability refers to the ongoing capacity of higher education institutions to generate research that contributes to the long-term development of knowledge, aligns with global sustainability goals, and ensures educational practices that are responsive to societal needs. Methods: Using a synthetic control method, this study evaluates the impact of the LOES on the number of academic publications recorded in Scopus. A synthetic control consisting of data from countries with similar educational and economic profiles serves as a counterfactual to Ecuador’s situation. Results: Before the LOES, the average annual number of publications was stable at 253.4 per year. Post-2010, this number surged, reaching an average of 3645.84 publications per year, representing a 358.41% increase. By 2023, the actual number of publications in Ecuador rose to approximately 6584, significantly surpassing the synthetic control estimate of 1431 publications. Conclusions: The findings confirm that the LOES has been effective in increasing research output and advancing educational sustainability in Ecuador. This analysis not only contributes to the literature on the impact of educational policies but also demonstrates the utility of synthetic control methods in assessing policy effectiveness, underscoring the potential of targeted interventions to promote academic excellence and sustainability in education.