Assessing the Impact of External Shocks on the Development of the Manufacturing Industry

The article presents the results of assessing the impact of external shocks imposed against the Russian Federation in 2022 on manufacturing output volumes. External restrictions have affected the majority of segments of manufacturing activity, but in different ways. Six groups of sectors have been identified depending on the forecast estimates of the effect of external shocks from extremely negative to moderately positive impact. Most sectors experienced a significant negative impact, including producers of intermediate goods and a number of segments of mechanical engineering. The factors and conditions that determined the dynamics of the response of individual sectors to external shocks are analyzed. The importance of studying the technological factor for the structural transformation of manufacturing industries is noted.