Signals Approach for Assessment and Prediction of Financial Stability of Russian Businesses

The article presents an assessment of financial stability of Russian industrial companies based on financial ratios calculated on the data from their accounting statements. The assessment uses a modified methodology of the signals approach, originally designed for early warning of currency crises. Based on the data about operating and bankrupt companies, thresholds crossing which increases the likelihood of bankruptcy are calculated for six financial ratios. The consolidated leading indicator of bankruptcy calculated basing on these thresholds correctly predicts bankruptcies in 91.5% cases and the absence of bankruptcies in 93.7% cases, in 2023.