Spatial dynamics and drivers of recent changes in grass and shrub cover in submontane grassland plant communities

Abstract Shrub encroachment into grassland ecosystems has been increasingly observed and documented worldwide in recent years. A grass–shrub transition can affect the diversity, abundance and functional integrity of grassland plant communities and understanding the drivers behind these processes is therefore crucial. While potential environmental drivers are often investigated, the role of spatial patterns of neighbouring shrub density in local shrub encroachment has been less well studied. The aim of this study is to investigate the relative role of neighbouring shrub density and topography as potential key drivers of shrub encroachment in a typical montane grassland ecosystem in New Zealand. We used the SPOT (Satellite Pour l’Observation) 6/7 multispectral imagery captured on one day in 2013 and in 2017 to calculate recent changes in shrub/grass cover during this period. Using the Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), we classified the study area into grassland and shrubland and quantified the extent and change in these two land-cover types over the study period. We then investigated the relationships between changes in land cover and neighbourhood shrub density, elevation and aspect. Between 2013 and 2017, there was an overall shrubland increase of + 0.35% of the study area per year, and grassland decrease of −0.43% per year. Locations at which any change in vegetation type occurred were more likely to be at mid-elevation (c. 600–1,000 m a.s.l.) and on west-facing slopes. Highest shrub expansion rates were observed on areas that were on warmer, north-facing slopes and at elevations below 900 m a.s.l.; this is consistent with areas below the pre-human, natural treeline which is estimated to be at very similar elevations. We found a marked threshold in the degree to which neighbourhood shrub density correlated with local shrub encroachment: local shrub encroachment only occurred when shrub cover in the neighbourhood exceeded 40% and peaked at c. 60% indicating the potential for a sudden grass–shrub regime shift once shrub cover reaches a certain level. Our study provides new evidence from the Southern Hemisphere of a measurable and interacting effect of topography and neighbourhood shrub density on recent shrub encroachment rates in montane grasslands even over short time periods.