What if … there were no special schools?

Abstract Inclusive education is a human right that involves restructuring the school system and closing special schools. However, there is uncertainty about whether all or only some students in an inclusive system should attend regular primary schools and whether all or only some special schools should be closed. This question is usually only discussed in terms of the best possible care and education and the challenge of transportation to school and travel distances is neglected. This article attempts to take both into account. The federal state of Bavaria in Germany does not yet have a fully developed inclusive school system. Using school statistics data for the entire Bavarian primary school population in 2020 ( N > 445,000) and geographical data, we simulate deterministically what the Bavarian primary school system could look like with various underlying inclusion models. We analyse the resulting student numbers, support rates of primary schools and school travel distances of former special school students in an urban-rural comparison in four different simulated inclusion models. The results show that all models are potentially feasible. The student numbers at each primary school resulting from the closure of special schools would in most cases not change significantly, whereas the support rate (i.e., the percentage of students with SEN per primary school) would. Schooling close to home favours students in rural areas in particular and significantly reduces their journeys to school by up to 30 km, while for students in urban areas, all inclusive models would be possible. The pedagogical and systemic consequences of the simulated inclusion models are discussed.