MaxEnt Modeling for Predicting the Potential Geographical Distribution of Hydrocera triflora since the Last Interglacial and under Future Climate Scenarios

<i>Hydrocera triflora</i> is a perennial herb found in southeastern and southern Asia. In China, it is only found in Hainan Province. With global climate change, studying the impact of climate change on the distribution of <i>H. triflora</i> can provide a theoretical basis for the scientific protection of this species. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution area of <i>H. triflora</i> in China under historical, current, and future periods based on 66 distribution points and 12 environmental variables. The results were as follows: (i) The main environmental variables affecting the distribution of <i>H. triflora</i> were precipitation in the coldest month and in the wettest quarter, with elevation also being a significant factor. (ii) Over the past three periods, the last interglacial, last glacial maximum, and mid-Holocene, the suitable area for <i>H. triflora</i> initially decreased and then increased. The suitable area reached the lowest value in the last glacial maximum period, at only 27.03 × 10⁴ km². (iii) The current potential distribution area is 67.81 × 10⁴ km², and the optimal area is mainly distributed in the Guangxi, Guangdong, and Hainan provinces. (iv) Under future climate scenarios, the potential distribution area of <i>H. triflora</i> is projected to increase by 11.27~90.83 × 10⁴ km². It is expected to reach a maximum value (158.64 × 10⁴ km²) in 2081~2100 under the SSP-585 climate scenario, with the distribution centroid shifting to higher latitudes. The newly gained optimal habitats will provide potential areas for introduction and ex situ conservation of this species.