Does the Concept of Green Development Promote High-Quality Urban Development?—An Empirical Analysis Based on the Pilot Policy of the “Zero-Waste City” in China

Since 2019, eighteen major ministries and commissions, including the National Development and Reform Commission, have launched trials for a “zero-waste city”. Shenzhen, Baotou, Tongling, and 16 other cities and regions have entered the practical operation stage, and the significance of the economic effect of the policy pilot needs to be tested through empirical evaluation. This study systematically gathers time series data from 281 prefecture-level cities in China from 2005 to 2022 and constructs an innovative experimental framework for the construction of a zero-waste city. It implements a series of rigorous robustness testing procedures using the difference-in-differences (DID) method to scientifically and objectively measure the actual effects of waste-free city construction strategies in promoting the city’s social development along a high-quality development path. This study provides deep insights into the zero-waste city construction strategy as a strong driving force. Our results indicate that the high-quality development stage has a positive impact on the city as a whole that cannot be ignored. At the same time, in-depth analysis shows that this strategy exhibits strong regional differences in the process of promoting high-quality urban development. For the two core regions of eastern and central China, the implementation of zero-waste city policies has significantly accelerated the pace of high-quality development, and further analysis reveals that, compared with the developed eastern region, the implementation of this policy in the central region has achieved superior results in terms of high-quality development. Third, the benefits of waste-free city policies are related to the economic bases of cities, the number of green patents granted, national policies, geographical location, and other factors.